Value next round option
Value raising now versus delaying for a milestone by simulating posterior milestone success, bridge-capacity failure, conditional future dilution, terminal stakeholder value, and lower-tail delay loss.
What it's for
Quantifies whether waiting for a milestone is worth the dilution upside after runway failure and downside risk, instead of assuming a higher future valuation is free.
What you give it
Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.
| Field | Type | Role | Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| beta_prior_alpha | number > 0 | Your calibration | Optional |
| beta_prior_beta | number > 0 | Your calibration | Optional |
| bridge_pre_money_valuation | number > 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| confidence_level | number ≥ 0.5, ≤ 0.999 | Your calibration | Optional |
| current_cash | number ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| current_pre_money_valuation | number > 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| delayed_raise_amount | number ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| max_detail_rows | integer ≥ 1, ≤ 500 | Numerical control | Optional |
| maximum_bridge_capital | number ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| maximum_delay_cvar_loss | any | Your calibration | Optional |
| milestone_failures | integer ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| milestone_successes | integer ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| minimum_delay_financing_survival_probability | number ≥ 0, ≤ 1 | Your calibration | Optional |
| minimum_probability_delay_value_positive | number ≥ 0, ≤ 1 | Your calibration | Optional |
| posterior_draws | integer ≥ 1000, ≤ 200000 | Numerical control | Optional |
| raise_now_amount | number ≥ 0 | Your calibration | Yes |
| scenarios | array of objects (8 fields) ≥ 2 items | Evidence | Yes |
| seed | integer ≥ 0, ≤ 4294967295 | Numerical control | Optional |
| tail_probability | number ≥ 0.001, ≤ 0.5 | Your calibration | Optional |
Each scenarios
record
| Field | Type | Required |
|---|---|---|
| cash_burn_until_decision | number (≥ 0) | Yes |
| delayed_pre_money_if_failure | number (> 0) | Yes |
| delayed_pre_money_if_success | number (> 0) | Yes |
| id | string (non-empty) | Yes |
| probability | number (≥ 0, ≤ 1) | Yes |
| terminal_enterprise_value_delay_failure | number (≥ 0) | Yes |
| terminal_enterprise_value_delay_success | number (≥ 0) | Yes |
| terminal_enterprise_value_raise_now | number (≥ 0) | Yes |
{
"bridge_pre_money_valuation": 12000000,
"current_cash": 1500000,
"current_pre_money_valuation": 15000000,
"delayed_raise_amount": 5000000,
"maximum_bridge_capital": 1000000,
"milestone_failures": 2,
"milestone_successes": 18,
"posterior_draws": 5000,
"raise_now_amount": 5000000,
"scenarios": [
{
"cash_burn_until_decision": 1000000,
"delayed_pre_money_if_failure": 8000000,
"delayed_pre_money_if_success": 30000000,
"id": "base",
"probability": 0.7,
"terminal_enterprise_value_delay_failure": 12000000,
"terminal_enterprise_value_delay_success": 45000000,
"terminal_enterprise_value_raise_now": 25000000
},
{
"cash_burn_until_decision": 1200000,
"delayed_pre_money_if_failure": 10000000,
"delayed_pre_money_if_success": 40000000,
"id": "upside",
"probability": 0.3,
"terminal_enterprise_value_delay_failure": 15000000,
"terminal_enterprise_value_delay_success": 60000000,
"terminal_enterprise_value_raise_now": 30000000
}
],
"seed": 41
}What you get back
This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.
{
"assumptions": [
"Scenario probabilities represent exogenous joint futures, while the beta posterior represents milestone-success sampling uncertainty from comparable, selection-aware, outcome-mature attempts.",
"Existing-stakeholder value uses a simplified pro-rata dilution model: bridge capital prices at the governed bridge pre-money valuation and the delayed round prices at the success/failure pre-money valuation.",
"Terminal enterprise values, burn, financing amounts, currency, horizon, taxes, preferences, participation, debt priority, shutdown value, and scenario dependence are complete and mutually consistent; this model is not a valuation, fundraising guarantee, or substitute for board, legal, tax, or investor judgment."
],
"configuration": {
"bridge_pre_money_valuation": 12000000,
"confidence_level": 0.9,
"current_cash": 1500000,
"current_pre_money_valuation": 15000000,
"delayed_raise_amount": 5000000,
"maximum_bridge_capital": 1000000,
"maximum_delay_cvar_loss": null,
"minimum_delay_financing_survival_probability": 0.95,
"minimum_probability_delay_value_positive": 0.8,
"posterior_draws": 5000,
"posterior_mean_milestone_success_probability": 0.8636,
"raise_now_amount": 5000000,
"seed": 41,
"tail_probability": 0.1
},
"decision": "delay_next_round_option_supported",
"method": "posterior_milestone_bridge_constrained_next_round_option_v1",
"scenario_diagnostics": [
{
"delay_financing_survives": true,
"expected_delay_incremental_existing_stakeholder_value": 15568681.3187,
"probability_delay_value_positive": 0.8636,
"scenario_id": "base",
"scenario_probability": 0.7
},
{
"delay_financing_survives": true,
"expected_delay_incremental_existing_stakeholder_value": 24924242.4242,
"probability_delay_value_positive": 0.8636,
"scenario_id": "upside",
"scenario_probability": 0.3
}
],
"summary": {
"clears_cvar_gate": true,
"clears_financing_survival_gate": true,
"clears_positive_value_gate": true,Truncated for display — the full payload is 57 lines.
How it works
Sequential Bayesian & bandits — Learn while deciding — update beliefs as evidence arrives and choose where the next unit of effort is worth spending.
- 1 Freeze exogenous joint scenarios, current cash and financing terms, bridge capacity and price, success/failure delayed-round valuations, terminal enterprise values, and a selection-aware cohort of comparable resolved milestones.
- 2 Draw milestone-success probability from its beta posterior, sample a joint scenario, enforce bridge survival, propagate bridge and delayed-round dilution, and compare terminal existing-stakeholder value with raising now.
- 3 Support delay only when its incremental value probability, financing-survival probability, and optional CVaR ceiling all clear; treat failure of any gate as raise-now-preferred-or-delay-unsupported rather than proof a round is available.
Before you trust it
Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.
Assumptions & guardrails
- The likelihood or reward model, prior support, action logging, delayed outcomes, and any stationarity assumptions match the deployment process.
- Milestone attempts are comparable and selection-aware, joint scenarios are complete, conditional pre-money and terminal values are coherent, and cash burn, financing amounts, currency, horizon, and capital-stack perimeter align.
- Posterior probability and adaptive selection are model-conditional; they are not substitutes for randomized propensities or guaranteed safety.
- This simplified pro-rata real option omits debt and preference waterfalls, taxes, participation, shutdown value, investor availability, signaling, and negotiation; it is not a valuation, financing guarantee, or board recommendation.
Minimum evidence
- scenarios: at least 2 rows/items
- current_cash: required and organization-defined
- current_pre_money_valuation: required and organization-defined
- raise_now_amount: required and organization-defined
- delayed_raise_amount: required and organization-defined
- bridge_pre_money_valuation: required and organization-defined
- maximum_bridge_capital: required and organization-defined
- milestone_successes: required and organization-defined
- milestone_failures: required and organization-defined
How to validate it
Validate on future periods or held-out aggregate units, compare with a simple baseline, and require stability across plausible metric definitions and decision thresholds.
Calibrating it to your org
Same for everyone
The mathematical kernel, validation rules, method version, and JSON output semantics are organization-independent; no tenant-trained coefficients or company benchmark is embedded in the function.
Specific to you
- selection-aware milestone success/failure counts and complete joint burn, valuation, and terminal-value scenarios
- cash and capital-stack perimeter, bridge enforceability, milestone cohort/selection/maturity, priors, financing and terminal value definitions, scenario probabilities, currency/horizon, survival/value/CVaR gates, draws, and seed
Calibration workflow
- 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
- 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
- 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
- 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
- 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
- 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.
Call it from your AI
You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.
gitrevio_capabilities_search
{ "q": "value raising now versus delaying for" }
→ finds "value_next_round_option"
gitrevio_capability_describe
{ "capability_id": "value_next_round_option" }
→ returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page
gitrevio_capability_run
{ "capability_id": "value_next_round_option", "arguments": { ... } }
→ returns the result shown aboveWorks in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.
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