Estimate financing dilution scenarios

What it's for

Makes hidden dilution from option-pool refreshes and convertible claims visible before founders, boards, or investors compare financing scenarios.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

{
  "convertibles": [
    {
      "conversion_claim": 500000,
      "discount_rate": 0.2,
      "id": "convertible-note",
      "valuation_cap": 8000000
    }
  ],
  "current_unallocated_option_pool_units": 1000000,
  "holders": [
    {
      "id": "founders",
      "ownership_units": 8000000
    },
    {
      "id": "seed-investors",
      "ownership_units": 1000000
    }
  ],
  "maximum_expected_relative_dilution": 0.3,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "base",
      "new_money": 2000000,
      "pre_money_valuation": 10000000,
      "probability": 0.6,
      "target_post_money_unallocated_option_pool": 0.1
    },
    {
      "id": "upside",
      "new_money": 2000000,
      "pre_money_valuation": 15000000,
      "probability": 0.4,
      "target_post_money_unallocated_option_pool": 0.1
    }
  ]
}

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

{
  "assumptions": [
    "Holder units plus the current unallocated pool are the complete pre-financing fully diluted base; all scenario probabilities, valuations, claims, and currencies share one as-of date.",
    "The option-pool top-up occurs pre-money, new money buys at the round price, and each convertible is modeled as a fixed claim converting at the lower of its discounted round valuation and valuation cap.",
    "The simplified waterfall does not implement pre-money versus post-money SAFE variants, MFN clauses, interest, liquidation preference, participation, anti-dilution, taxes, secondary sales, or legal priority; counsel and the canonical cap-table system remain authoritative."
  ],
  "configuration": {
    "confidence_level": 0.9,
    "current_unallocated_option_pool_units": 1000000,
    "existing_fully_diluted_units": 10000000,
    "maximum_expected_relative_dilution": 0.3
  },
  "decision": "financing_dilution_within_gate",
  "holder_diagnostics": [
    {
      "expected_post_financing_ownership": 0.6309,
      "holder_id": "founders",
      "post_financing_ownership_interval": [
        0.6152,
        0.6544
      ],
      "pre_financing_fully_diluted_ownership": 0.8
    },
    {
      "expected_post_financing_ownership": 0.0789,
      "holder_id": "seed-investors",
      "post_financing_ownership_interval": [
        0.0769,
        0.0818
      ],
      "pre_financing_fully_diluted_ownership": 0.1
    }
  ],
  "method": "scenario_cap_table_option_pool_convertible_waterfall_v1",
  "scenario_diagnostics": [
    {
      "convertible_ownership": 0.0495,
      "existing_stakeholder_ownership": 0.6921,
      "existing_stakeholder_relative_dilution": 0.231,
      "new_money": 2000000,
      "new_money_investor_ownership": 0.1584,
      "post_money_fully_diluted_units": 13004291.8455,
      "pre_money_valuation": 10000000,
      "price_per_ownership_unit": 0.9708,

How it works

Statistical audit & measurement — Check whether a number is fit to decide on: coverage, timing, reconciliation, and the gaps a dashboard hides.

1. 1 Freeze the canonical fully diluted holder and unallocated-pool units, fixed convertible claims and terms, and probability-weighted financing scenarios at one cap-table as-of date.
2. 2 For each scenario solve the circular pre-money pool top-up, calculate the round price, convert fixed claims at the lower capped or discounted valuation, and reconcile every post-money ownership component to one.
3. 3 Report holder ownership intervals and relative dilution, applying the optional expected-dilution gate without choosing legal terms or treating the simplified waterfall as the authoritative cap table.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Calibrating it to your org

Calibration workflow

1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "estimate financing dilution with a scenario" }
  → finds "estimate_financing_dilution_scenarios"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "estimate_financing_dilution_scenarios" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "estimate_financing_dilution_scenarios", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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