Audit recurring revenue bridge integrity
Audit recurring revenue as a continuous stock/flow ledger: reconcile opening revenue through new, expansion, reactivation, contraction, churn, FX and acquisition/divestiture movements to closing revenue; require each next opening to equal the prior close; and recompute GRR and NRR on an organic existing-customer perimeter that cannot be inflated by new business, reactivation, FX or M&A.
Statistical audit & measurement
Forecast recurring revenue regimes
Fit a diagonal-Gaussian hidden Markov model to consecutive organic ARR growth, GRR, gross margin and cash-burn intensity, order latent regimes by growth rather than arbitrary labels, test effective regime support and improvement over a single-state model, then simulate ARR and unrestricted cash through fitted transitions, within-regime variation and coherent common market scenarios.
Markov & state-space control
Optimize discount policy
Optimize one aggregate discount option per commercial segment against scenario purchase, retention, service-cost and contribution economics; enforce expected discount spend, delivery capacity, cross-segment rate-gap and downside gates, compare with an explicit zero-discount baseline, and disclose exact or heuristic search.
Constrained optimization
Optimize regime contingent growth capital policy
Choose one action for each observable recurring-revenue regime and reuse it on every matching future, charging unique commitment resources once; evaluate every policy on coherent regime paths with multiplicative ARR, cash-burn and full action cost, then maximize expected terminal ARR value plus cash minus CVaR shortfall subject to liquidity, target-ARR, dependencies, exclusions, budget and capacity.
Constrained optimization