Customer, revenue & pricing

Churn economics, feature uplift, recurring-revenue mechanics and negotiation ranges.

12 of 388 tools.

Audit recurring revenue bridge integrity

Audit recurring revenue as a continuous stock/flow ledger: reconcile opening revenue through new, expansion, reactivation, contraction, churn, FX and acquisition/divestiture movements to closing revenue; require each next opening to equal the prior close; and recompute GRR and NRR on an organic existing-customer perimeter that cannot be inflated by new business, reactivation, FX or M&A.

Statistical audit & measurement

Calculate churn prevention break even

Calculate the absolute churn reduction an intervention must cause to break even, then test aligned baseline/treated scenarios against probability-of-positive-value and portfolio CVaR gates.

Constrained optimization

Calculate procurement negotiation range

Calculate an uncertainty-aware procurement bargaining zone from independently governed buyer and supplier BATNA economics; protect both reservation prices at explicit confidence levels, derive a bargaining-weight target, quantify ZOPA probability and tail overpayment, and abstain when evidence cannot support an overlap.

Decision analysis

Estimate cannibalization adjusted feature value

Estimate feature value after posterior cannibalization of legacy contribution, using aligned adoption scenarios, beta-binomial substitution uncertainty, and value plus substitution-risk gates.

Sequential Bayesian & bandits

Estimate feature incremental value

Estimate rollout value from segment-level treated/control outcomes with beta-binomial uplift posteriors, finance-owned contribution economics, and a probability-of-positive-value gate.

Causal inference & experiment design

Estimate pricing experiment value

Choose pricing experiment arms by posterior future contribution, conversion-harm probability, and a model-conditional perfect-information value upper bound.

Sequential Bayesian & bandits

Forecast customer lifetime value uncertainty

Forecast prospective customer lifetime value by jointly propagating beta-binomial retention uncertainty and lognormal contribution-margin parameter uncertainty through discounted cohort economics.

Forecasting & survival

Forecast recurring revenue regimes

Fit a diagonal-Gaussian hidden Markov model to consecutive organic ARR growth, GRR, gross margin and cash-burn intensity, order latent regimes by growth rather than arbitrary labels, test effective regime support and improvement over a single-state model, then simulate ARR and unrestricted cash through fitted transitions, within-regime variation and coherent common market scenarios.

Markov & state-space control

Optimize discount policy

Optimize one aggregate discount option per commercial segment against scenario purchase, retention, service-cost and contribution economics; enforce expected discount spend, delivery capacity, cross-segment rate-gap and downside gates, compare with an explicit zero-discount baseline, and disclose exact or heuristic search.

Constrained optimization

Optimize license seat portfolio

Choose integer license packs across aggregate seat pools under coherent demand, on-demand price and capacity scenarios; explicitly price unused and unserved seats, enforce budget, coverage and CVaR gates, and disclose exact versus deterministic supported-set search.

Constrained optimization

Optimize regime contingent growth capital policy

Choose one action for each observable recurring-revenue regime and reuse it on every matching future, charging unique commitment resources once; evaluate every policy on coherent regime paths with multiplicative ARR, cash-burn and full action cost, then maximize expected terminal ARR value plus cash minus CVaR shortfall subject to liquidity, target-ARR, dependencies, exclusions, budget and capacity.

Constrained optimization

Rank features by evidence adjusted ROI

Rank feature investments by reliability-shrunk ROI, downside probability, and CVaR using aligned outcome scenarios and an explicit skeptical prior.

Forecasting & survival

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