Calculate strategy to cash conversion

What it's for

Gives CEOs and investors a board-ready answer to where approved strategic value went—showing the exact dollar waterfall from plan through execution and adoption to collected cash and reserve shortfall.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

{
  "current_value_realization_reserve": 100,
  "initiatives": [
    {
      "adoption_fraction_scenarios": [
        0.8,
        0.7
      ],
      "approved_value_scenarios": [
        100,
        80
      ],
      "collection_fraction_scenarios": [
        0.95,
        0.85
      ],
      "id": "shared-platform",
      "implementation_fraction_scenarios": [
        0.9,
        0.8
      ],
      "monetization_fraction_scenarios": [
        0.9,
        0.8
      ],
      "outcome_fraction_scenarios": [
        0.8,
        0.6
      ],
      "realization_cost_scenarios": [
        5,
        8
      ]
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "base",
      "probability": 0.7
    },
    {
      "id": "stress",
      "probability": 0.3
    }

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

{
  "configuration": {
    "maximum_acceptable_cvar_value_gap": null,
    "minimum_expected_gross_cash_conversion_fraction": 0,
    "minimum_expected_net_cash_value": 0,
    "reserve_confidence_level": 0.9,
    "scenario_count": 2,
    "tail_probability": 0.3
  },
  "decision": "strategy_to_cash_conversion_supported",
  "failed_gates": [],
  "guardrails": [
    "Every initiative vector must preserve the same coherent scenario order, currency, horizon, counterfactual and price basis. Independently sorting implementation, adoption, outcomes or cash collection manufactures an impossible waterfall and tail reserve.",
    "Each stage receives only the value surviving prior stages, so leakage is mutually exclusive and exactly reconciles approved value to gross cash. Realization cost is added once after the operating waterfall.",
    "Approved value must be incremental and finance governed. Conversion does not prove causal value, and stage gaps diagnose an aggregate system rather than assigning blame or financial credit to people."
  ],
  "initiative_value_waterfalls": [
    {
      "expected_adoption_value_gap": 18.36,
      "expected_approved_value": 94,
      "expected_collection_value_gap": 2.7821,
      "expected_gross_collected_cash": 39.9571,
      "expected_implementation_value_gap": 11.8,
      "expected_monetization_value_gap": 5.6448,
      "expected_net_collected_cash": 34.0571,
      "expected_outcome_value_gap": 15.456,
      "expected_realization_cost": 5.9,
      "expected_total_value_gap": 59.9429,
      "initiative_id": "shared-platform",
      "tail_cvar_value_gap_contribution": 69.7216
    }
  ],
  "method": "coherent_sequential_strategy_to_cash_value_waterfall_v1",
  "summary": {
    "current_value_realization_reserve": 100,
    "expected_approved_value": 94,
    "expected_gross_cash_conversion_fraction": 0.4251,
    "expected_gross_collected_cash": 39.9571,
    "expected_net_collected_cash": 34.0571,
    "expected_total_value_gap": 59.9429,
    "initiative_count": 1,
    "probability_reserve_breach": 0,
    "required_value_realization_reserve": 69.7216,
    "tail_cvar_value_gap": 69.7216,

How it works

Decision analysis — Turn uncertainty, cost and risk appetite into a defensible choice, with the reasoning left inspectable.

1. 1 Freeze finance-approved incremental value and aligned stage-conversion and realization-cost arrays inside common scenarios with one currency, horizon, counterfactual and price basis.
2. 2 Pass only surviving value into each next stage, producing mutually exclusive implementation, adoption, outcome, monetization and collection gaps that exactly reconcile approved value to gross collected cash before cost.
3. 3 Aggregate initiative gaps without breaking common shocks, size the reserve quantile and CVaR, reconcile exact tail contributions, and gate reserve, gross cash conversion, net cash value and severe gap appetite.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Calibrating it to your org

Calibration workflow

1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "reconcile approved strategy value sequentially through" }
  → finds "calculate_strategy_to_cash_conversion"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "calculate_strategy_to_cash_conversion" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "calculate_strategy_to_cash_conversion", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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