Forecast cross border data restriction loss

What it's for

Prices the cash and customer downside behind residency promises so executives and investors can reserve migration capacity before a regional restriction becomes a crisis.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

{
  "current_sovereignty_exposures": [
    {
      "contract_loss_per_restriction": 5000,
      "cost_prior_log_mean": 9.210340371976184,
      "cost_prior_log_sd": 0.4,
      "cost_prior_strength": 3,
      "evidence_verified": true,
      "forecast_data_tb_days": 500,
      "id": "exposure-1",
      "jurisdiction_group_id": "eu",
      "migration_prior_log_mean_days": 2.302585092994046,
      "migration_prior_log_sd": 0.3,
      "migration_prior_strength": 3,
      "operating_loss_per_migration_day": 2000,
      "preventive_control_effectiveness": 0.2,
      "restriction_rate_prior_rate": 1000,
      "restriction_rate_prior_shape": 1,
      "sovereignty_class": "eu-transfer"
    }
  ],
  "historical_sovereignty_classes": [
    {
      "cost_log_squared_sum": 84.83036976765439,
      "cost_log_sum": 9.210340371976184,
      "cost_observation_count": 1,
      "evidence_verified": true,
      "exposure_data_tb_days": 100,
      "id": "history-0",
      "migration_log_days_squared_sum": 5.301898110478399,
      "migration_log_days_sum": 2.302585092994046,
      "migration_observation_count": 1,
      "period": 0,
      "sovereignty_class": "eu-transfer",
      "verified_restriction_event_count": 0
    },
    {
      "cost_log_squared_sum": 84.83036976765439,
      "cost_log_sum": 9.210340371976184,
      "cost_observation_count": 1,
      "evidence_verified": true,
      "exposure_data_tb_days": 100,
      "id": "history-1",
      "migration_log_days_squared_sum": 5.301898110478399,

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

{
  "configuration": {
    "minimum_cost_observations": 5,
    "minimum_history_periods": 12,
    "minimum_migration_observations": 5,
    "random_seed": 43,
    "simulation_count": 2000,
    "tail_probability": 0.05
  },
  "decision": "forecast_supported",
  "exposure_forecasts": [
    {
      "conditional_value_at_risk": 309651.8261,
      "expected_loss": 41452.9611,
      "exposure_id": "exposure-1",
      "failed_gates": [],
      "posterior_mean_events": 0.7575,
      "probability_any_restriction": 0.4645,
      "supported": true,
      "value_at_risk": 188342.4336
    }
  ],
  "failed_gates": {
    "scenario_evidence_verified": true,
    "unsupported_exposure_or_group_ids": []
  },
  "guardrails": [
    "Restriction classes, scenario probabilities and applicability are supplied by counsel and accountable risk owners; this is not a legal prediction or legal advice.",
    "Zero-event periods and data-volume exposure must be retained; selective incident histories inflate rates and invalidate the forecast.",
    "Common jurisdiction loss is counted once per group to avoid multiplying shared revenue exposure across assets."
  ],
  "method": "gamma_poisson_compound_lognormal_sovereignty_loss_v1",
  "summary": {
    "conditional_value_at_risk": 330394.9465,
    "expected_total_loss": 45895.4611,
    "expected_unique_common_loss": 4442.5,
    "median_total_loss": 0,
    "probability_any_loss": 0.482,
    "value_at_risk": 231669.224
  }
}

How it works

Forecasting & survival — Estimate when something completes or fails, with censoring and unresolved work handled honestly rather than dropped.

1. 1 Build consecutive zero-inclusive sovereignty-class periods with data-TB-day exposure, verified restriction events and positive migration duration/cost log moments.
2. 2 Update tenant priors with a Gamma-Poisson frequency model and partial-pooled log-normal severity models, then simulate governed rate, duration, cost, operating and common-jurisdiction scenarios.
3. 3 Count shared jurisdiction revenue/fixed loss once, report exposure-level posterior risk plus portfolio VaR/CVaR, and abstain below history, severity or provenance thresholds.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Calibrating it to your org

Calibration workflow

1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "forecast migration operating contract and common" }
  → finds "forecast_cross_border_data_restriction_loss"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "forecast_cross_border_data_restriction_loss" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "forecast_cross_border_data_restriction_loss", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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