Calculate break even delivery date

What it's for

Shows the last date when an initiative still makes economic sense—and how much value each period of waiting destroys—without confusing urgency with a delivery forecast.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

{
  "benefit_duration_periods": 12,
  "discount_rate_per_period": 0.01,
  "horizon_periods": 12,
  "minimum_probability_positive_npv": 0.7,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "delay_cost_per_period": 4,
      "delivery_cost_growth_rate_per_period": 0.02,
      "gross_value_at_delivery": 200,
      "id": "base",
      "probability": 0.7,
      "recurring_contribution_per_period": 20,
      "recurring_operating_cost_per_period": 5,
      "remaining_delivery_cost": 70,
      "value_decay_rate_per_period": 0.08
    },
    {
      "delay_cost_per_period": 7,
      "delivery_cost_growth_rate_per_period": 0.05,
      "gross_value_at_delivery": 120,
      "id": "stress",
      "probability": 0.3,
      "recurring_contribution_per_period": 12,
      "recurring_operating_cost_per_period": 6,
      "remaining_delivery_cost": 90,
      "value_decay_rate_per_period": 0.15
    }
  ]
}

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

{
  "configuration": {
    "benefit_duration_periods": 12,
    "discount_rate_per_period": 0.01,
    "horizon_periods": 12,
    "tail_probability": 0.1
  },
  "decision": "delivery_economic_window_supported",
  "delivery_period_economics": [
    {
      "cvar_loss": 0,
      "delivery_period": 0,
      "economically_supported": true,
      "expected_npv": 239.8218,
      "failed_gates": [],
      "probability_positive_npv": 1
    },
    {
      "cvar_loss": 0,
      "delivery_period": 1,
      "economically_supported": true,
      "expected_npv": 213.8048,
      "failed_gates": [],
      "probability_positive_npv": 1
    },
    {
      "cvar_loss": 0,
      "delivery_period": 2,
      "economically_supported": true,
      "expected_npv": 189.8179,
      "failed_gates": [],
      "probability_positive_npv": 1
    },
    {
      "cvar_loss": 0,
      "delivery_period": 3,
      "economically_supported": true,
      "expected_npv": 167.6167,
      "failed_gates": [],
      "probability_positive_npv": 1
    },
    {
      "cvar_loss": 6.9729,
      "delivery_period": 4,

How it works

Forecasting & survival — Estimate when something completes or fails, with censoring and unresolved work handled honestly rather than dropped.

1. 1 Freeze finance-owned scenarios for value at delivery, remaining cost, recurring contribution and operating cost, decay, cost growth and interim delay cost on one cadence and incremental perimeter.
2. 2 Replay every candidate delivery period through the horizon, discount delivery and recurring cash economics, and calculate expected NPV, probability of positive NPV and downside CVaR.
3. 3 Return the latest period clearing all governed gates, the first later failure and scenario value lost by waiting; combine this boundary with a separately calibrated delivery-time distribution.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Calibrating it to your org

Calibration workflow

1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "find the latest economically supported delivery" }
  → finds "calculate_break_even_delivery_date"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "calculate_break_even_delivery_date" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "calculate_break_even_delivery_date", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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