Cluster process markov archetypes

Discover privacy-eligible workflow archetypes from aggregate Markov transition counts using empirical-Bayes shrinkage, Jensen-Shannon k-medoids, silhouette quality, and posterior assignment stability.

What it's for

Turns thousands of workflow histories into a small set of interpretable operating patterns without labeling individual employees.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

Field Type Role Required
bootstrap_draws integer ≥ 100, ≤ 10000 Numerical control Optional
cluster_count integer ≥ 2, ≤ 10 Your calibration Optional
max_detail_rows integer ≥ 1, ≤ 500 Numerical control Optional
max_iterations integer ≥ 1, ≤ 1000 Your calibration Optional
minimum_unit_size integer ≥ 2, ≤ 1000000 Your calibration Optional
prior_strength number ≥ 0.1, ≤ 1000 Your calibration Optional
seed integer Numerical control Optional
states array of string ≥ 2 items Evidence Yes
units array of objects (3 fields) Evidence Yes

Each units record

Field Type Required
id string (non-empty) Yes
transition_counts object Yes
unit_size integer (≥ 1) Yes
Example input
{
  "bootstrap_draws": 100,
  "cluster_count": 2,
  "seed": 15,
  "states": [
    "active",
    "blocked"
  ],
  "units": [
    {
      "id": "workflow-unit-0",
      "transition_counts": {
        "active": {
          "active": 90,
          "blocked": 10
        },
        "blocked": {
          "active": 10,
          "blocked": 90
        }
      },
      "unit_size": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "workflow-unit-1",
      "transition_counts": {
        "active": {
          "active": 90,
          "blocked": 10
        },
        "blocked": {
          "active": 10,
          "blocked": 90
        }
      },
      "unit_size": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "workflow-unit-2",
      "transition_counts": {
        "active": {
          "active": 90,
          "blocked": 10
        },

Truncated for display — the full payload is 151 lines.

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

Example output
{
  "assumptions": [
    "The declared states are comparable and Markov-sufficient across units, transition histories share a stable epoch, and missing transitions are ignorable.",
    "Dirichlet shrinkage borrows the portfolio transition pattern; Jensen-Shannon k-medoids describes transition similarity and does not identify causes or immutable team types.",
    "Cluster count is governed before interpretation, while posterior assignment stability and silhouette must remain visible when archetypes overlap.",
    "Only privacy-eligible team, project, service, or company units may be clustered; archetypes must not become person-level labels or employment decisions."
  ],
  "clusters": [
    {
      "cluster_id": "archetype-1",
      "mean_assignment_stability": 1,
      "mean_silhouette": 1,
      "medoid_unit_id": "workflow-unit-0",
      "transition_profile": {
        "active": {
          "active": 0.8636,
          "blocked": 0.1364
        },
        "blocked": {
          "active": 0.1364,
          "blocked": 0.8636
        }
      },
      "units": 5
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "archetype-2",
      "mean_assignment_stability": 1,
      "mean_silhouette": 1,
      "medoid_unit_id": "workflow-unit-5",
      "transition_profile": {
        "active": {
          "active": 0.1364,
          "blocked": 0.8636
        },
        "blocked": {
          "active": 0.8636,
          "blocked": 0.1364
        }
      },
      "units": 5
    }
  ],
  "decision": "stable_process_archetypes_available",

Truncated for display — the full payload is 144 lines.

How it works

Sequential Bayesian & bandits — Learn while deciding — update beliefs as evidence arrives and choose where the next unit of effort is worth spending.

  1. 1 Discover privacy-eligible workflow archetypes from aggregate Markov transition counts using empirical-Bayes shrinkage, Jensen-Shannon k-medoids, silhouette quality, and posterior assignment stability.
  2. 2 Evaluate the method-specific diagnostics and gates returned by the function, then abstain unless the declared decision clears them under locally governed thresholds.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Assumptions & guardrails

  • The likelihood or reward model, prior support, action logging, delayed outcomes, and any stationarity assumptions match the deployment process.
  • Posterior probability and adaptive selection are model-conditional; they are not substitutes for randomized propensities or guaranteed safety.

Minimum evidence

  • units: required and organization-defined
  • states: at least 2 rows/items

How to validate it

Validate on future periods or held-out aggregate units, compare with a simple baseline, and require stability across plausible metric definitions and decision thresholds.

Calibrating it to your org

Same for everyone

The mathematical kernel, validation rules, method version, and JSON output semantics are organization-independent; no tenant-trained coefficients or company benchmark is embedded in the function.

Specific to you

  • LEAD(status) transition pairs per issue
  • complete state-by-next-state count matrix per repository
  • privacy-eligible observed-contributor count
  • state vocabulary
  • analysis epoch
  • cluster count and shrinkage strength
  • minimum unit size

Calibration workflow

  1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
  2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
  3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
  4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
  5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
  6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "discover privacyeligible workflow archetypes from aggregate" }
  → finds "cluster_process_markov_archetypes"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "cluster_process_markov_archetypes" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "cluster_process_markov_archetypes", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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