Estimate network direct and spillover effects

Estimate direct, neighbor-spillover, and total effects under Bernoulli-randomized network interference using exact exposure probabilities and randomization inference.

Causal inference & experiment design Estimate CTOs Tech CEOs IT managers Team leads Investors

What it's for

Makes cross-team intervention analytics interference-aware instead of assuming one treated team's process change cannot alter connected teams.

What you give it

Every tool is a pure function: it computes from what you pass it and reads nothing on its own. Inputs split into evidence you supply from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

Field Type Role Required
edges array of objects (2 fields) Evidence Yes
minimum_exposure_units integer ≥ 2 Your calibration Optional
minimum_unit_size integer ≥ 2 Your calibration Optional
randomization_draws integer ≥ 200, ≤ 20000 Your calibration Optional
seed integer Numerical control Optional
units array of objects (5 fields) Evidence Yes

Each units record

Field Type Required
assignment_probability number (> 0, < 1) Yes
id string (non-empty) Yes
outcome number Yes
treated one of "0", "1" Yes
unit_size integer (≥ 2) Yes
Example input 
{
  "edges": [
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-0-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-0-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-1-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-1-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-2-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-2-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-3-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-3-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-4-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-4-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-5-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-5-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-6-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-6-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-7-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-7-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-8-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-8-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-9-0",
      "unit_b": "unit-9-1"
    },
    {
      "unit_a": "unit-10-0",

Truncated for display — the full payload is 225 lines.

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

Example output 
{
  "assumptions": [
    "Treatment assignments are independent Bernoulli draws with the immutable probabilities supplied for every unit.",
    "Interference is fully represented by whether any graph neighbor is treated; effects outside this exposure mapping are not identified.",
    "The graph and outcomes were fixed independently of realized assignment, and every row is a privacy-eligible team or cohort.",
    "Randomization p-values test a sharp no-effect null; supported estimates remain design-specific and should not be interpreted as individual effects."
  ],
  "decision": "network_effects_estimable",
  "effects": [
    {
      "effect": "direct_effect_without_neighbor_exposure",
      "estimate": 2,
      "randomization_p_value": 0.150259,
      "supported": true,
      "valid_randomization_draws": 192
    },
    {
      "effect": "direct_effect_with_neighbor_exposure",
      "estimate": 2,
      "randomization_p_value": 0.189744,
      "supported": true,
      "valid_randomization_draws": 194
    },
    {
      "effect": "spillover_effect_on_controls",
      "estimate": 3,
      "randomization_p_value": 0.062176,
      "supported": true,
      "valid_randomization_draws": 192
    },
    {
      "effect": "spillover_effect_on_treated",
      "estimate": 3,
      "randomization_p_value": 0.030769,
      "supported": true,
      "valid_randomization_draws": 194
    },
    {
      "effect": "total_effect",
      "estimate": 5,
      "randomization_p_value": 0.005348,
      "supported": true,
      "valid_randomization_draws": 186
    }

Truncated for display — the full payload is 88 lines.

How it works

Causal inference & experiment design — Separate what a change caused from what merely moved alongside it.

  1. 1 Estimate direct, neighbor-spillover, and total effects under Bernoulli-randomized network interference using exact exposure probabilities and randomization inference.
  2. 2 Evaluate the method-specific diagnostics and gates returned by the function, then abstain unless the declared decision clears them under locally governed thresholds.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Assumptions & guardrails

  • Assignment or adoption timing, interference policy, overlap, attrition, and outcome availability match the estimand encoded by the method.
  • A causal label is warranted only when design and diagnostic requirements pass; otherwise treat the result as descriptive or abstain.

Minimum evidence

  • units: required and organization-defined
  • edges: required and organization-defined

How to validate it

Preserve the assignment/adoption design and validate overlap, pre-period or placebo diagnostics, attrition, interference policy, and cluster-level uncertainty; never tune on the estimated effect.

Calibrating it to your org

Same for everyone

The mathematical kernel, validation rules, method version, and JSON output semantics are organization-independent; no tenant-trained coefficients or company benchmark is embedded in the function.

Specific to you

  • metric/outcome definitions, entity grain, observation window, costs, thresholds, priors, and constraints represented by the function inputs

Calibration workflow

  1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
  2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
  3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
  4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
  5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
  6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 20 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own. 

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "estimate direct neighborspillover and total effects" }
  → finds "estimate_network_direct_and_spillover_effects"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "estimate_network_direct_and_spillover_effects" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "estimate_network_direct_and_spillover_effects", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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