Estimate multilevel metric generalizability
Decompose aggregate management-metric variance into unit, period, and residual components, bootstrap reliability, and calculate the sampling needed for dependable comparisons.
What it's for
Stops dashboards and AI agents from comparing teams, repositories, or projects using a metric whose measurement design cannot support the decision.
What you give it
Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.
| Field | Type | Role | Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| bootstrap_draws | integer ≥ 200, ≤ 20000 | Numerical control | Optional |
| confidence_level | number ≥ 0.8, ≤ 0.999 | Your calibration | Optional |
| observations | array of objects (4 fields) ≥ 200 items | Evidence | Yes |
| planned_observations_per_unit | integer ≥ 1, ≤ 10000 | Your calibration | Optional |
| seed | integer | Numerical control | Optional |
| target_dependability | number ≥ 0.5, ≤ 0.99 | Your calibration | Optional |
Each observations
record
| Field | Type | Required |
|---|---|---|
| id | string (non-empty) | Yes |
| period_id | string (non-empty) | Yes |
| unit_id | string (non-empty) | Yes |
| value | number | Yes |
{
"bootstrap_draws": 200,
"observations": [
{
"id": "reliability-0-0",
"period_id": "week-0",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-1",
"period_id": "week-1",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.05
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-2",
"period_id": "week-2",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.1
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-3",
"period_id": "week-3",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.15000000000000002
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-4",
"period_id": "week-4",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.2
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-5",
"period_id": "week-5",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.25
},
{
"id": "reliability-0-6",
"period_id": "week-6",
"unit_id": "repository-0",
"value": 0.30000000000000004 Truncated for display — the full payload is 1206 lines.
What you get back
This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.
{
"assumptions": [
"Units and periods represent the intended comparison universe, the metric definition is stable, and missing observations are ignorable after the declared design.",
"The crossed additive unit/period decomposition is adequate; unit-by-period interactions and autocorrelation are absorbed into residual variance.",
"Method-of-moments corrections approximate an unbalanced generalizability study and cluster bootstrap resamples whole units; highly sparse designs need a full mixed-effects model.",
"Dependability qualifies a privacy-eligible group metric for comparison and is not evidence of individual effort, intent, or employment suitability."
],
"coefficients": {
"absolute_dependability": 0.999984,
"absolute_interval": [
0.999971,
0.999987
],
"planned_observations_per_unit": 10,
"relative_generalizability": 1,
"relative_interval": [
1,
1
],
"required_observations_per_unit": 1,
"target_dependability": 0.8
},
"decision": "metric_dependable_for_group_comparison",
"method": "crossed_unit_period_generalizability_mom_cluster_bootstrap_v1",
"sample": {
"bootstrap_draws": 200,
"confidence_level": 0.95,
"minimum_observations_per_unit": 10,
"observations": 200,
"periods": 10,
"units": 20
},
"variance_components": {
"period": 0.02294911,
"residual": 0.00002573,
"unit": 140.0066484,
"unit_share": 0.999836
}
} How it works
Forecasting & survival — Estimate when something completes or fails, with censoring and unresolved work handled honestly rather than dropped.
- 1 Decompose aggregate management-metric variance into unit, period, and residual components, bootstrap reliability, and calculate the sampling needed for dependable comparisons.
- 2 Evaluate the method-specific diagnostics and gates returned by the function, then abstain unless the declared decision clears them under locally governed thresholds.
Before you trust it
Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.
Assumptions & guardrails
- Training examples precede their outcomes, censoring and unresolved work are represented, and deployment populations remain comparable to validation cohorts.
- A predictive interval or risk estimate is not a deadline promise, causal explanation, or individual-performance judgment.
Minimum evidence
- observations: at least 200 rows/items
How to validate it
Validate on future periods or held-out aggregate units, compare with a simple baseline, and require stability across plausible metric definitions and decision thresholds.
Calibrating it to your org
Same for everyone
The mathematical kernel, validation rules, method version, and JSON output semantics are organization-independent; no tenant-trained coefficients or company benchmark is embedded in the function.
Specific to you
- one stable aggregate metric value per repository and period
- privacy-eligible unit definition
- metric definition
- planned observations per unit
- target dependability
Calibration workflow
- 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
- 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
- 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
- 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
- 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
- 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.
Call it from your AI
You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.
gitrevio_capabilities_search
{ "q": "decompose aggregate managementmetric variance into unit" }
→ finds "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability"
gitrevio_capability_describe
{ "capability_id": "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability" }
→ returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page
gitrevio_capability_run
{ "capability_id": "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability", "arguments": { ... } }
→ returns the result shown above Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.
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