Estimate multilevel metric generalizability

Decompose aggregate management-metric variance into unit, period, and residual components, bootstrap reliability, and calculate the sampling needed for dependable comparisons.

What it's for

Stops dashboards and AI agents from comparing teams, repositories, or projects using a metric whose measurement design cannot support the decision.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

Field Type Role Required
bootstrap_draws integer ≥ 200, ≤ 20000 Numerical control Optional
confidence_level number ≥ 0.8, ≤ 0.999 Your calibration Optional
observations array of objects (4 fields) ≥ 200 items Evidence Yes
planned_observations_per_unit integer ≥ 1, ≤ 10000 Your calibration Optional
seed integer Numerical control Optional
target_dependability number ≥ 0.5, ≤ 0.99 Your calibration Optional

Each observations record

Field Type Required
id string (non-empty) Yes
period_id string (non-empty) Yes
unit_id string (non-empty) Yes
value number Yes
Example input
{
  "bootstrap_draws": 200,
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-0",
      "period_id": "week-0",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-1",
      "period_id": "week-1",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-2",
      "period_id": "week-2",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.1
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-3",
      "period_id": "week-3",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.15000000000000002
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-4",
      "period_id": "week-4",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.2
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-5",
      "period_id": "week-5",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.25
    },
    {
      "id": "reliability-0-6",
      "period_id": "week-6",
      "unit_id": "repository-0",
      "value": 0.30000000000000004

Truncated for display — the full payload is 1206 lines.

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

Example output
{
  "assumptions": [
    "Units and periods represent the intended comparison universe, the metric definition is stable, and missing observations are ignorable after the declared design.",
    "The crossed additive unit/period decomposition is adequate; unit-by-period interactions and autocorrelation are absorbed into residual variance.",
    "Method-of-moments corrections approximate an unbalanced generalizability study and cluster bootstrap resamples whole units; highly sparse designs need a full mixed-effects model.",
    "Dependability qualifies a privacy-eligible group metric for comparison and is not evidence of individual effort, intent, or employment suitability."
  ],
  "coefficients": {
    "absolute_dependability": 0.999984,
    "absolute_interval": [
      0.999971,
      0.999987
    ],
    "planned_observations_per_unit": 10,
    "relative_generalizability": 1,
    "relative_interval": [
      1,
      1
    ],
    "required_observations_per_unit": 1,
    "target_dependability": 0.8
  },
  "decision": "metric_dependable_for_group_comparison",
  "method": "crossed_unit_period_generalizability_mom_cluster_bootstrap_v1",
  "sample": {
    "bootstrap_draws": 200,
    "confidence_level": 0.95,
    "minimum_observations_per_unit": 10,
    "observations": 200,
    "periods": 10,
    "units": 20
  },
  "variance_components": {
    "period": 0.02294911,
    "residual": 0.00002573,
    "unit": 140.0066484,
    "unit_share": 0.999836
  }
}

How it works

Forecasting & survival — Estimate when something completes or fails, with censoring and unresolved work handled honestly rather than dropped.

  1. 1 Decompose aggregate management-metric variance into unit, period, and residual components, bootstrap reliability, and calculate the sampling needed for dependable comparisons.
  2. 2 Evaluate the method-specific diagnostics and gates returned by the function, then abstain unless the declared decision clears them under locally governed thresholds.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Assumptions & guardrails

  • Training examples precede their outcomes, censoring and unresolved work are represented, and deployment populations remain comparable to validation cohorts.
  • A predictive interval or risk estimate is not a deadline promise, causal explanation, or individual-performance judgment.

Minimum evidence

  • observations: at least 200 rows/items

How to validate it

Validate on future periods or held-out aggregate units, compare with a simple baseline, and require stability across plausible metric definitions and decision thresholds.

Calibrating it to your org

Same for everyone

The mathematical kernel, validation rules, method version, and JSON output semantics are organization-independent; no tenant-trained coefficients or company benchmark is embedded in the function.

Specific to you

  • one stable aggregate metric value per repository and period
  • privacy-eligible unit definition
  • metric definition
  • planned observations per unit
  • target dependability

Calibration workflow

  1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
  2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
  3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
  4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
  5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
  6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "decompose aggregate managementmetric variance into unit" }
  → finds "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "estimate_multilevel_metric_generalizability", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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