Estimate FX exposure for engineering

What it's for

Lets a CTO and CFO see how cloud, contractor, licensing, hardware, and cross-border engineering commitments translate into budget and tail loss after genuine natural offsets and hedges.

What you give it

Inputs split into evidence read from your connected systems, calibration your team owns, and numerical controls that affect precision but never the result's meaning.

{
  "cash_flows": [
    {
      "base_rate_per_currency_scenarios": [
        1.2,
        0.8
      ],
      "budgeted_base_rate_per_currency": 1,
      "currency": "EUR",
      "foreign_currency_amount_scenarios": [
        -100,
        -100
      ],
      "id": "cloud-payment"
    }
  ],
  "hedges": [
    {
      "base_currency_payoff_scenarios": [
        15,
        -15
      ],
      "currency": "EUR",
      "id": "eur-forward",
      "premium_base_currency": 1
    }
  ],
  "maximum_cvar_fx_loss": 10,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "adverse",
      "probability": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "favorable",
      "probability": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "tail_probability": 0.5
}

What you get back

This is the actual output of running the example above — computed by the same function the platform calls, not an illustration.

{
  "assumptions": [
    "Cash flows use immutable signed foreign-currency amounts, one budgeted base-currency rate, and coherent joint amount/rate scenarios on the same settlement horizon; positive amounts are receipts and negative amounts are payments.",
    "Natural offsets remain in the same joint scenarios. Hedge payoffs and premiums are executable, counterparty-adjusted, tax-consistent and aligned to the cash-flow horizon; this kernel does not infer hedge pricing, basis risk, liquidity, rollover or accounting treatment.",
    "CVaR and currency contributions are conditional on submitted probabilities and reconcile modeled net loss. They are not exchange-rate forecasts, hedge-accounting conclusions, treasury instructions, trading advice or guarantees against omitted currency regimes.",
    "The result supports aggregate engineering-finance review and cannot rank employees, vendors or countries or authorize a hedge, contract, transfer, cancellation or employment action."
  ],
  "cash_flow_diagnostics": [
    {
      "cash_flow_id": "cloud-payment",
      "currency": "EUR",
      "expected_budgeted_base_value": -100,
      "expected_foreign_currency_amount": -100,
      "expected_fx_loss_before_hedges": 0,
      "maximum_scenario_fx_loss_before_hedges": 20
    }
  ],
  "configuration": {
    "cash_flow_sign_convention": "positive receipt; negative payment",
    "fx_loss_definition": "negative signed foreign amount times realized-minus-budgeted base rate",
    "maximum_cvar_fx_loss": 10,
    "maximum_expected_fx_loss": null,
    "tail_probability": 0.5
  },
  "currency_diagnostics": [
    {
      "currency": "EUR",
      "expected_net_fx_loss": 1,
      "tail_conditional_net_fx_loss_contribution": 6,
      "tail_loss_share": 1
    }
  ],
  "decision": "engineering_fx_exposure_clears_governed_risk_gates",
  "hedge_diagnostics": [
    {
      "currency": "EUR",
      "expected_net_hedge_value": -1,
      "expected_payoff_base_currency": 0,
      "hedge_id": "eur-forward",
      "premium_base_currency": 1
    }
  ],
  "method": "coherent_engineering_cash_flow_fx_cvar_attribution_v1",
  "scenario_diagnostics": [

How it works

Statistical audit & measurement — Check whether a number is fit to decide on: coverage, timing, reconciliation, and the gaps a dashboard hides.

1. 1 Freeze every signed foreign-currency engineering receipt and payment with its budgeted base rate, then align realized amount and rate vectors to one governed joint scenario law.
2. 2 Translate each flow into loss versus budget, aggregate natural offsets by currency, subtract executable base-currency hedge payoffs, add premiums, and retain both gross and net scenario loss rather than comparing independent currency marginals.
3. 3 Calculate expected loss and probability-weighted CVaR, reconcile the net tail exactly to currency contributions, disclose hedge effectiveness, and apply independently governed expected-loss and tail-loss gates.

Before you trust it

Every tool in the catalog ships with the conditions under which its answer is meaningful — and the conditions under which it should abstain instead of guessing.

Calibrating it to your org

Calibration workflow

1. 1 Define the management decision, target outcome, aggregate unit, privacy boundary, cadence, and prediction/intervention horizon for this organization.
2. 2 Build a tenant-scoped historical cohort using only information available before each prediction or decision; preserve zero periods, censoring, assignment probabilities, and unresolved outcomes when the method requires them.
3. 3 Estimate statistical parameters on training history, but obtain costs, utilities, risk tolerance, practical-effect thresholds, capacity, and policy constraints from accountable decision owners.
4. 4 Validate on later time windows or held-out aggregate units at the deployment grain, against a simple baseline and the function-specific validation strategy.
5. 5 Deploy only if the returned decision clears evidence, overlap, calibration, robustness, and guardrail checks; warning, unsupported, schema-gap, and fallback decisions are abstentions.
6. 6 Monitor realized outcomes, data drift, coverage, and decision regret; recalibrate at a governed cadence or after a detected regime/definition change, never merely because a stakeholder dislikes the result.

Call it from your AI

You don't wire up 388 tools in your MCP client. The GitRevio MCP server exposes 18 tools, three of which let an agent search the catalog, read a tool's schema, and run it — so the assistant finds this one on its own.

gitrevio_capabilities_search
  { "q": "measure basecurrency engineering cashflow exposure across" }
  → finds "estimate_fx_exposure_for_engineering"

gitrevio_capability_describe
  { "capability_id": "estimate_fx_exposure_for_engineering" }
  → returns the input schema and agent guidance shown on this page

gitrevio_capability_run
  { "capability_id": "estimate_fx_exposure_for_engineering", "arguments": { ... } }
  → returns the result shown above

Works in Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, Cline, Continue.dev, Goose and Aider. See the MCP server.

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